Key Intelligence Signals
Phase-wise Voting Schedule
2026 Seat Forecast
294 ACS · BASE MODEL
| AC# | Constituency | District | Type | 2021 Winner/Party | 2024 Swing | Demo Zone | Prediction (Base) | Prediction (Demo+) | Score | SIR Risk | AITC Cand | BJP Cand |
|---|
Demographic Intelligence Model
23 DISTRICTS · 2011→2026
🕌 Model Methodology — Muslim Plurality & Hindu Dominance Zone Classification
This model uses 2011 Census district-level religious composition data (Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India) as baseline, then projects to 2026 using differential Total Fertility Rate (TFR) estimates: Muslim TFR in WB ≈ 2.6–2.9, Hindu TFR ≈ 2.0–2.1 (Source: SRS Statistical Reports 2018–20, NFHS-5 2019–21, ORGI estimates).
NGO & Survey Data incorporated: CSDS-Lokniti post-poll surveys (2021 WB Assembly, 2024 LS) for party-wise community vote-share estimation. ASER reports for socio-demographic baseline. NSSO/PLFS 2022–23 for district literacy & economic indicators. Pratham Education Foundation data for education metrics.
Vote-share estimates: Based on CSDS-Lokniti data — TMC receives ~75–80% of Muslim vote and ~40–50% of Hindu vote in WB; BJP receives ~5–8% Muslim vote and ~40–45% Hindu vote. These are used to estimate community-weighted vote advantage per district.
Disclaimer: This is a statistical/academic model for political analysis purposes. Actual vote outcomes depend on local candidate factors, caste arithmetic, anti-incumbency, booth management, and post-SIR final roll changes. This does NOT represent the editorial view of the author on any community.
NGO & Survey Data incorporated: CSDS-Lokniti post-poll surveys (2021 WB Assembly, 2024 LS) for party-wise community vote-share estimation. ASER reports for socio-demographic baseline. NSSO/PLFS 2022–23 for district literacy & economic indicators. Pratham Education Foundation data for education metrics.
Vote-share estimates: Based on CSDS-Lokniti data — TMC receives ~75–80% of Muslim vote and ~40–50% of Hindu vote in WB; BJP receives ~5–8% Muslim vote and ~40–45% Hindu vote. These are used to estimate community-weighted vote advantage per district.
Disclaimer: This is a statistical/academic model for political analysis purposes. Actual vote outcomes depend on local candidate factors, caste arithmetic, anti-incumbency, booth management, and post-SIR final roll changes. This does NOT represent the editorial view of the author on any community.
District Zone Map
Demographic vs Base Prediction Comparison
| AC# | Constituency | District | Demo Zone | Muslim% 2011 | Muslim% 2026est | Hindu% 2026est | TMC Vote Est% | BJP Vote Est% | Base Prediction | Demo+ Prediction | Score Adj |
|---|
Full AC Database
294 ACS · ALL DATA
| AC# | Constituency | District | PC | Phase | 2021 Winner | 2021 Party | Margin 2021 | 2024 Lead | 2024 Party | Swing | Electors 2021 | Electors 2024 | SIR Total | SIR Δ | Risk | Adj Total | Elig% | Prediction |
|---|
SIR — Special Intensive Revision
⬡ What is SIR?
Special Intensive Revision (SIR) is a door-to-door verification of the electoral roll by Booth Level Officers (BLOs). The 2026 SIR had reference date 01.01.2026, with initial deletion of ~53 lakh voters. ACs where voter count changed ±5% from 2024 LS roll are flagged ⚠.
Source: CEO West Bengal — SIR Draft Electoral Roll (January–March 2026) | Total Deletions Statewide: ~1.06 crore | At-risk ACs: 116 of 294
Source: CEO West Bengal — SIR Draft Electoral Roll (January–March 2026) | Total Deletions Statewide: ~1.06 crore | At-risk ACs: 116 of 294
| AC# | Constituency | District | 2021 Party | Electors 2021 | Electors 2024 | SIR Total | SIR Male | SIR Female | Δ 24→SIR | Δ% | Risk Flag | Prediction |
|---|
Adjudication Report
⬡ What is Adjudication?
After SIR, flagged names go through adjudication — BLOs decide: Eligible (STAY) or Not Eligible (DELETE). Deleted voters appear in the Deleted Voters Supplementary List and will NOT be able to vote.
Source: ECI/CEO WB Adjudication Report, April 2026 | Total WB: 1.19 crore under adjudication | 54.4% found eligible | 45.6% found NOT eligible
Source: ECI/CEO WB Adjudication Report, April 2026 | Total WB: 1.19 crore under adjudication | 54.4% found eligible | 45.6% found NOT eligible
| AC# | Constituency | District | Adj Total | Eligible (Stay) | NOT Eligible (Del) | Eligible% | Not Elig% | Exec Rate | Prediction |
|---|
District Summary
23 DISTRICTS
2026 Candidate List
294 ACS · AITC + BJP + LF+ + INC
| AC# | Constituency | District | Category | Voting Date | AITC Candidate | BJP Candidate | LF Party | LF Candidate | INC Candidate | Prediction |
|---|
Methodology & Sources
⚠ Important Disclaimer — As of April 10, 2026
This dashboard is built for academic, journalistic and political research purposes only. All data is sourced from publicly available official records (ECI, CEO WB) and published surveys. Demographic projections use mathematical models and carry inherent uncertainty. Predictions do not account for local factors, post-SIR final roll changes, or last-minute candidate changes. The author makes no claim of infallibility. This is not a substitute for professional electoral analysis.
Data Sources — Official Government
S1ECI 2021 WB Assembly Results
Election Commission of India — Official Results for all 294 ACs. Winner, runner-up, votes, margins, turnout, electors. April 2021.
Election Commission of India — Official Results for all 294 ACs. Winner, runner-up, votes, margins, turnout, electors. April 2021.
S2ECI 2024 Lok Sabha AC-wise Segment
ECI 2024 LS — AC-level segment leads mapped from 42 Parliamentary Constituencies to 294 ACs. June 2024.
ECI 2024 LS — AC-level segment leads mapped from 42 Parliamentary Constituencies to 294 ACs. June 2024.
S3CEO WB — SIR Draft Electoral Roll 2026
Chief Electoral Officer West Bengal — Special Intensive Revision Draft Roll. Reference date: 01.01.2026. Jan–Mar 2026.
Chief Electoral Officer West Bengal — Special Intensive Revision Draft Roll. Reference date: 01.01.2026. Jan–Mar 2026.
S4ECI/CEO WB — Adjudication Report
Eligible vs Not-Eligible determination for 294 ACs. Supplementary + Deleted Lists. April 2026.
Eligible vs Not-Eligible determination for 294 ACs. Supplementary + Deleted Lists. April 2026.
S5ECI — 2026 WB Assembly Candidate List
Official candidate nomination data. AITC, BJP, LF+, INC. Phase-wise voting dates. April 2026.
Official candidate nomination data. AITC, BJP, LF+, INC. Phase-wise voting dates. April 2026.
S6Census 2011 — Office of the Registrar General
District-level religious composition data. Muslim %, Hindu %, Other %. ORGI India.
District-level religious composition data. Muslim %, Hindu %, Other %. ORGI India.
Data Sources — Survey & Research
S7CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Surveys
Lokniti Programme, CSDS New Delhi — Community-wise vote share analysis, 2021 WB Assembly & 2024 LS. TMC/BJP vote-share by religious community.
Lokniti Programme, CSDS New Delhi — Community-wise vote share analysis, 2021 WB Assembly & 2024 LS. TMC/BJP vote-share by religious community.
S8SRS Statistical Reports (2018–2020)
Sample Registration System — Total Fertility Rate by religion and state. ORGI India.
Sample Registration System — Total Fertility Rate by religion and state. ORGI India.
S9NFHS-5 (2019–21) — National Family Health Survey
Ministry of Health & Family Welfare — State-level TFR, fertility differentials by community, West Bengal data.
Ministry of Health & Family Welfare — State-level TFR, fertility differentials by community, West Bengal data.
S10ASER Reports (2022–2024)
Annual Status of Education Report — Pratham Foundation. District-level literacy and education data used as socio-demographic baseline.
Annual Status of Education Report — Pratham Foundation. District-level literacy and education data used as socio-demographic baseline.
S11NSSO/PLFS 2022–23
National Sample Survey / Periodic Labour Force Survey — Employment, literacy, and economic indicators by district. MoSPI India.
National Sample Survey / Periodic Labour Force Survey — Employment, literacy, and economic indicators by district. MoSPI India.
Prediction Model Logic
Base Model (Rule-Based Scoring)
2021 Result (+2 AITC / -2 BJP) + 2024 LS Lead (+2 AITC / -2 BJP) + Swing Direction (+2 Gain) + Margin Scale + SIR Risk Flag + Adjudication Eligible %
2021 Result (+2 AITC / -2 BJP) + 2024 LS Lead (+2 AITC / -2 BJP) + Swing Direction (+2 Gain) + Margin Scale + SIR Risk Flag + Adjudication Eligible %
Demographic Model (Overlay)
Muslim % 2026 est: ≥50% → +2 TMC score adj; 35–50% → +1; <15% → -1 BJP boost. Combined Score = Base + Demographic Adjustment.
Muslim % 2026 est: ≥50% → +2 TMC score adj; 35–50% → +1; <15% → -1 BJP boost. Combined Score = Base + Demographic Adjustment.
Score → Prediction
≥+5: AITC HIGH · +3/+4: AITC MEDIUM · +1/+2: AITC LEAN · 0: TOSS-UP · -1/-2: BJP LEAN · -3/-4: BJP MEDIUM · ≤-5: BJP HIGH
≥+5: AITC HIGH · +3/+4: AITC MEDIUM · +1/+2: AITC LEAN · 0: TOSS-UP · -1/-2: BJP LEAN · -3/-4: BJP MEDIUM · ≤-5: BJP HIGH
Limitations
Model does NOT account for: local candidate factors, caste arithmetic, anti-incumbency, booth management, money/muscle power, post-SIR final roll changes, or BSP/ISF/other party impact.
Model does NOT account for: local candidate factors, caste arithmetic, anti-incumbency, booth management, money/muscle power, post-SIR final roll changes, or BSP/ISF/other party impact.
Demographic Projection Model
Base Year: Census 2011
Projection Year: 2026 (15-year horizon)
Method: Compound annual growth differential — Muslim electorate growth ~1.6%/yr (TFR ~2.6–2.9), Hindu ~0.8%/yr (TFR ~2.0–2.1). Shares renormalised to 100%.
Vote-share basis: CSDS-Lokniti 2021 WB survey — TMC: 77% Muslim / 45% Hindu; BJP: 6% Muslim / 42% Hindu.
Zone thresholds: Muslim Majority ≥50% · Plurality 35–50% · Significant 20–35% · Hindu Dominant <20%
Note: These are projections for research. The 2026 electoral roll may differ due to migration, urban-rural shifts, and other factors not captured in TFR models.